Jaras: In early June 2010, the Jaras website requested from its readers to take part in a poll. The result of this poll is document for the Iranian people’s Green Movement and is important from a number of different angles.
Subject of the poll: What is your evaluation of Mr Khamenei’s performance in the past 21 years based on the constitution, Islamic, moral and human rights principles and national interests?
A. Very bad, grade between 0-7
B. Bad, grade between 7-12
C. Average, grade between 12-16
D. Good, grade between 16-20
Poll carried out between 3:24pm on 4 June and 9:50am on 12 June 2010 which adds up to seven days and twelve hours.
Number of participant: 87444
Distribution of results in ascending order of votes:
First choice: 67819 votes, grade 0-7 (very bad) = 77.56%
Second choice: 12040 votes, grade 12-16 (average) = 13.77%
Third choice: 3953 votes, grade 7-12 (bad) = 4.52%
Fourth choice: 3631 votes, grade 16-20 (good) = 4.15%
The poll drew a considerable number of participants and in one week 88,000 people took part in the poll which should be looked at from different perspectives:
The reality is that this poll is indicative of a portion of the reality in Iranian society. The evaluation of 77.56 percent was that the leader had failed (very bad: 0-7), whereas 4.52 percent gave him a score of “bad” (between 7-12). In other words, 80 percent of the participants gave a score of less than 12 to Mr Khamenei and regard his leadership as unacceptable and a failure.
Those who regarded the leader’s performance to be “average” (a grade between 12-16) consisted of 13.77 percent of the participants and finally, those who regarded his leadership as “good” were at the bottom of the list with 4.15 percent of the polls. To put it simply, only 17.92 percent of the participant in the poll considered Mr Khamenei’s management as being acceptable (a grade between 12-20).
In short, the result of the poll is as follows: 18 percent are in favour and 82 percent are against the policies of Mr Khamenei. This poll might reveal
In terms of quantity, the participants in the Jaras poll constitute a little over a thousandth of the Iranian population and is considered reliable in this respect. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that in such polls, those who take part are for the most part, the country’s elite and educated or those who at least have access to the internet, which means the urban middle class of society. Therefore it is not illustrative of all the dimensions of Iranian public opinion, especially those who lack access to the internet.
With a certain degree of compromise, one can extend the results of the poll to half of the Iranian population, the half who are very influential in the political and cultural sphere of
In the poll, Jaras has mentioned the following principles as the basis for evaluating the leadership of Mr Khamenei in the past 21 years:
1. The constitution of the Islamic Republic
2. Islamic principles
3. Moral standards
4. Human rights articles
5. National interests
Having regard to Iranian culture and the period which we live in, it would seem that these five criteria are comprehensive enough. Mr Khamenei failed when taking into account the five mentioned factors. Our strong guess is that if the polls were to be carried out based on each of the factors separately, Mr Khamenei would receive similar results.
The leader’s conduct has been such that all the country’s affairs are associated with him and in effect, everything must be overseen by him. Even following the illegitimate president’s decision to appoint his first vice-president, the leader vetoed the decision; when he wanted to join the Hajj and Pilgrimage Organisation and the Cultural Heritage Organisation together, the leader vetoed the decision.
When the parliament wishes not to give a vote of confidence to a minister, he inhibits the move; when the parliament decides to reform the government’s subsidy policy, he ordered the parliament to cooperate with the government. The president gives the Guardian Council about the constitution and the Shari’a, and yet he[SS1] tells the parliament to create the atmosphere and the conditions for the implementation of the law.
When the former head of judiciary Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi wanted to remove Saeid Mortazavi, he came to the rescue and supported Mortazavi, yet nevertheless, Mortazavi accredited him for the Kahrizak abuse [SS2] . Larijani, the current head of judiciary wanted to confront Rahimi and a group of people behind economic corruption, he stood in the way.
Besides his extended authorities, some of which can be delegated, this style of horizontal management at any military, security, political and cultural rank, presents him as the personal in charge and responsible for all the country’s affairs which means that the majority of the people consider him as the person responsible for the country’s hardships and difficulties under the current situation.
This has reached a point where the regime is equated with the leader. Whenever he and his aides speak of the “system,” they are referring to the leadership. It would appear that this poll is the outcome and reflection of such a conduct and trend.
The absolute minority that consider his performance as acceptable are those who enjoy the blessing of the leader and the system. They either do not wish to be seen as ungrateful or—under the influence of the state media’s nonstop propaganda—consider him to be a true representative of Islam and a successor to Imam Khomeini.
The Jaras poll was a small internet poll. It was the legal obligation of the Council of Elite to carry out such a poll on a massive scale. Nevertheless, until the Council of Elite and other responsible bodies refrain from holding any referendums, the Jaras poll will be a source of reference.
It is now comprehensible why Mr Khamenei is evading a referendum. It is now understandable why he did not agree for a repeat of the elections. With an 82 percent opposition to the leader, is there any other choice for the leader than to rely on the Revolutionary Guard and the Intelligence Ministry?
Jaras will carry out a poll every week and will analyse each of them every Sunday. Please share your opinions and suggestions with us. With your help, we will hold the authorities accountable and will expose its lies with the language of figures.